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刚刚直线大跌！重磅利好突变利空 三星怎么了？高盛最新发声_我的网站

A |     According to Odinga, Deputy President William Ruto’s victory in the August 9 election for Kenya’s next president was a “travesty” and a “parody” with “many flaws." The official tally was extremely close, with Ruto claiming 50.5% of the vote and winning by just 233,000 ballots. However, according to the majority of Kenya’s election commission, the official tallies betray the rigging of the vote, which add up to 100.1%.,The East African state’s high court is tasked with reviewing elections, and will have 14 days to decide if there will be a new vote or if Ruto’s victory will stand.,The dispute has provoked new violence as protesters took to the streets and police unleashed tear gas and other weapons against the demonstrators.,Odinga is a longtime veteran of Kenyan politics, having run in numerous presidential races and participated in the struggle for multiparty democracy during the years of President Daniel arap Moi’s dictatorship. Since 2013, he has been recognized as the leader of the Kenyan opposition, although his longtime rival, outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, has endorsed his 2022 campaign.,He made a similar appeal after the August 2017 presidential election, which Kenyatta won with 54% of the vote as compared to Odinga’s 45%. The Supreme Court agreed with Odinga that the Independent Electoral Commission (IEBC) database had been hacked and the results falsified, voided the results, and ordered a new election held within two months, which Kenyatta also won.,‘The Mystery’,Odinga was born in 1945 in Maseno, a suburb of Kisumu, Kenya’s third largest city. His father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, was a prominent Luo chieftain who fought for Kenyan independence from the British Empire and was its first vice president following independence in 1963. Raila Odinga was educated in East Germany and ran an important gas cylinder manufacturing company in Kenya before entering the civil service.,© Dutch National ArchiveKenyan President Daniel arap Moi at a press conference in The Hague, Netherlands, on 21 June 1979.Kenyan President Daniel arap Moi at a press conference in The Hague, Netherlands, on 21 June 1979.© Dutch National Archive,In 1982, he was jailed along with numerous others after he was accused of being one of the ringleaders of an attempted military coup of President Daniel arap Moi, a Western-aligned Cold Warrior who never fully united the country following the death of his predecessor and Kenya’s first president, Jomo Kenyatta. Odinga was declared a traitor and spent the next six years in prison. He was released in February 1988 and re-arrested six months later for agitating for a multiparty political system. He was released again in 1989, arrested again in 1990, and released again in 1991, at that point fleeing abroad to Norway.,While he was in prison, Odinga earned the nickname “Agwambo,” which in his native Luo language means “The Mystery” or “The Unpredictable,” because of how afraid of him Moi’s government seemed to be.,Odinga returned the following year to participate in the country’s first multiparty elections, called after Moi caved to internal and Western pressure. Odinga joined his father’s Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) movement, became its vice chairman, and won a seat in parliament. Moi won the election and retained the presidency.,Political Jockeying in the New Democracy,In 1997, Odinga ran against Moi but came in third place, behind Moi, who won again, and Moi’s former vice president, Mwai Kibaki, who took second place. Afterwards, Odinga switched sides and threw his weight behind Moi, even merging his own National Development Party (NDP) with Moi’s Kenyan African National Union (KANU) to form New KANU. It won him a job as Moi’s energy minister.,However, the deal didn’t win Moi’s endorsement, and he backed Uhuru Kenyatta, a political neophyte and son of Jomo Kenyatta, in 2002, when he could not run again due to term limits. This was seen as a slight against movement veterans, who left New KANU in droves and formed the Liberal Democratic Party, led by Odinga, who threw his weight behind Kibaki.,However, Odinga’s loyalties changed once again after Kibaki won in 2002. Kibaki submitted a draft for a new constitution in 2005, which was seen as weakening regional and local government at the expense of a strengthened executive. Odinga led a successful “no” campaign ahead of the referendum, which roundly rejected the proposed constitution. He formed a new party, the ODM, following this split with Kibaki.,© AFP 2022 / SIMON MAINAKenyan police officers keep vigil outside the Supreme Court in Nairobi. File photoKenyan police officers keep vigil outside the Supreme Court in Nairobi. File photo© AFP 2022 / SIMON MAINA,In 2007, Odinga accused Kibaki of winning by withholding identity cards for voters in opposition strongholds, and rejected the results of the election, which were ironically almost exactly the same number of votes that Ruto has won by: 232,000. In the two months that followed, violence swept the country and more than 1,000 people died. The army was required to restore order, and the violence was defused after Odinga and Kibaki reached a power-sharing agreement by which Odinga would hold the revived office of prime minister.,Odinga also ran against Kenyatta in the 2013 and 2017 elections, alleging fraud and technological errors in both votes, with the second one resulting in the Supreme Court throwing out the results and calling a new election in October 2017. Odinga claimed the new election would not be free or fair, and boycotted the second vote, resulting in Kenyatta getting 98% of the vote.,Odinga declared himself the People’s President, rejecting Kenyatta’s victory, but the two appeared together on television in March 2018 and referred to themselves as “brothers” in a bid to reduce political tensions and avoid a repeat of the 2007 violence.。

B |     　　三星电子股价大跳水。
　　今日早间，韩国股市开盘后，三星电子股价大幅跳水，一度大跌超7%。在此之前，三星电子宣布计划在第三季度派发约30万亿韩元现金股息，预计2026年股东回报资金将达到约90万亿至110万亿韩元。

C | 　　高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，AI（人工智能）交易的“躺赢”时代或许已经结束，开始进入了一个更加依赖基本面、盈利预期和估值错配的阶段。

D | 高盛还表示，存储板块和数据中心板块的估值缺口最为突出，是目前最具吸引力的战术性机会。　　三星电子跳水　　北京时间8月24日早间，韩国股市开盘后，三星电子股价直线跳水，盘初一度大跌超7%，截至北京时间8:30，跌幅达6.84%。受此拖累，韩国KOSPI指数跌1.89%。SK海力士则小幅走高，现涨0.35%。　　消息面上，三星电子此前公布了史上规模最大的股东回报计划，预计2026年向股东返还最多110万亿韩元（约合人民币5300亿元），相当于自由现金流的五成左右。　　据三星电子向监管机构提交的文件，公司将派发约30万亿韩元第三季度现金股息，并回购约15万亿韩元股票用于员工薪酬计划。　　Petra Capital Management管理合伙人兼首席投资官Albert Yong表示：“市场真正关注的问题在于增量规模有多大，以及回购与股息各占多少比例。”　　目前，三星电子尚未公布回报计划的具体结构细节，股息与回购的比例仍有待明确。具体细节或将在10月下旬的董事会上最终确定。　　此次三星电子公布的股东回报规模若最终落于110万亿韩元上限，将刷新韩国企业股东回报的历史纪录，进一步检验韩国上市公司能否在AI周期带来的超额利润中，持续扩大对投资者的现金分配比例。　　KB证券此前预计，未来3年三星电子的股东回报总规模至少将达到600万亿至700万亿韩元，按现金分红计算的股息率将达到7%至15%。　　在三星电子公布股东回报计划前，SK海力士也宣布了40万亿韩元回购计划，并将2025年至2027年间产生的超过50%自由现金流用于提升股东回报。　　市场预计，三星电子和SK海力士到2026年年底将持有总计2630亿美元的净现金储备。据LSEG数据和路透测算，这一数字是英伟达预估净现金（1020 亿美元）的两倍有余，同时也超过美股 “科技七巨头” 其余六家科技企业的现金总和。　　高盛最新研判　　高盛在最新发布的报告中指出，目前AI交易的叙事逻辑正经历快速切换：随着算力成本持续下行，市场的关注焦点已从“谁是大规模资本开支的赢家”转向“谁是AI大规模普及浪潮中的真正受益者”。　　高盛表示，当前的仓位出清叠加依然强劲的AI基本面，为9月份市场重新承担风险奠定了更为健康的基础。　　高盛认为，AI交易远未终结，但AI交易已经从过去的“普涨行情”，进入了一个更加依赖基本面、盈利预期和估值错配的阶段。　　在战术层面，高盛建议围绕“股价与每股盈利大幅背离”的机会进行交易，并指出存储板块和数据中心板块的估值缺口最为突出，是目前最具吸引力的战术性机会。　　从高盛编制的加权平均净利润预期与加权平均市值对比来看，上述两个板块的盈利修复尚未充分反映在股价之中。　　高盛表示，英伟达二季度财报是下一个关键催化剂，此后密集的9月行业会议季也将为市场提供重要支撑。　　据彭博报道，英伟达部分大型客户已经被告知，搭载英伟达AI芯片的服务器系统明年初开始可能涨价超过15%，主要原因就是内存芯片成本快速上涨。这再次证明存储产业链的议价权。

E | 　　与此同时，AI应用层正逐步获得市场关注。

F | Moderna与默沙东此前宣布合作开发AI辅助药物，引发市场对医疗健康AI赛道的广泛兴趣。　　高盛数据显示，医疗AI受益标的的盈利修正广度正在提升，专业投资者情绪的改善也开始带动泛型投资者入场布局AI药物研发相关机会。　　东财图解·加点干货（文章来源：券商中国）。

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